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Effect of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Growth of Nigeria Economy

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Ibikunle, K.M. and Sulaiman, L.A., 2021. Effect of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Growth of Nigeria Economy. United International Journal for Research & Technology (UIJRT), 2(11), pp.49-56.

Abstract

The study examined the effects of real exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth of Nigeria from the periods 1986-2018. The study employed Johansen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Mechanism and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH). From the results, the study shows that fluctuation in exchange rate negatively influences the growth of the economy, export volume indicates a positive relationship both in the short and long-run on the growth of the Nigerian economy, import indicates negative relationship while the inflation rate is positive and insignificant on the growth of Nigeria economy. The autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) test indicates that real exchange rate fluctuation is persistent in Nigeria. In line with these findings, the study recommended that government should strengthen the exchange rate management framework in the country and take into consideration international fluctuations in the market. For this to be effective, requires the joint efforts of the monetary policies to awake to their core functions.

Keywords: Exchange Rate Fluctuation, Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product, Vector Error Correction Mechanism.

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