Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Methods between Vector Auto Regression and ARIMA for Forecasting Broiler Meat Production in the Covid-19 Pandemic in West Java Province

This study aims to predict the production of broiler meat in West Java Province in 2021-2025. The method used in this study is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method. The time series data used in this study is data on the production of broiler meat in West Java Province for 2000-2020. The use of ARIMA and VAR methods was compared to find out which the best method in forecasting broiler meat production by calculating the MAD, MSE, and MAPE forecasting errors. The software used as an analysis tool for ARIMA and VAR models is Eviews 10. The results of the study show that the best method used is VAR with a MAPE value of 13,45. The application of VAR method to the production of broiler meat for the next five years has increased.