Analysis of Consumer Demand Forecasting of Toyota Avanza, Dahiatsu Senia and Honda Brio Car Products During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Automotive sector has worst performance during the pandemic refers to Puchasing Manager Index (PMI) out of level 27.5 which should be at the normal level > 50. To respond this situation, the government made a policy regarding the LTV Ratio for property loans, the FTV ratio for property financing, and advances for credit or vehicle financing. Therefore, this study aims to analyze and forecast the demand of car which are represented by Toyota Avanza 1500cc, Daihatsu Xenia 1500cc and Honda Brio Satya as the most selling car in Indonesia. The forecasting technique was performed by a time series approach with the moving average, exponential smoothing and trend analysis method. Moreover, this study was performed a comparative analysis with MAD, MSE and MAPE to obtain accurate results method with the smallest error number. Afterward, this study found that the moving average method has high accuracy in forecasting for Toyota Avanza 1500cc and Daihatsu Xenia 1500cc. Meanwhile, trend analysis is well accurate forecasting for Honda Brio Satya. The results show an increase in demand for all types of cars sampled. It indicates that consumers have well respond due to government policies about vehicle financing and loans.